My least favorite part at BigCo was the yearly planning. It's a 6-12 week long dance where executives set priorities; middle managers figure out leadership's priorities, align theirs with that, craft narratives and jockey for headcount. Like a Russian doll, the game is played in a nested way in all levels of the organization, a [[Legibility]] exercise that is absolutely necessary and yet equally dreadful. In one particular dance, the exec priority was NNARR or: net-new annually recurring revenue. Our job was to translate that to intermediate goals, and translate *that* to workstreams for our teams. It also occurred that this is the main job of management in *any company*. The lag metric is revenue, and you have to find the lead metric. ### Lag and Lead Metrics Lag metrics (also lagging indicators, or output metrics) are what you're trying to influence, but are not in your direct control. The ultimate lag metric is revenue. Lead metrics (also leading indicators, proxy metrics, or controllable input metrics) are things that you believe will influence the lag metrics down the line, but are in more direct control. ![[Lead vs Lag.png]] That little arrow is the hardest part. Pick the wrong metric, and you'll go in the wrong direction. This [case from Amazon](https://commoncog.com/c/cases/amazon-incentives-category-expansion/?__readwiseLocation=) is a great example for the first row above. Features shipped to MAUs is tenuous as best, and actively misleading at worst, which is why you should favor [[Outcomes vs outputs - Get the right scoreboard for your team|outcome metrics]]. Even if you pick the best one, [[Goodhart's Law]] means that it's *still* prone to being gamed. You must periodically keep an eye on your outputs, especially if you're hitting your lead metrics but not the lag metrics. In other words: check your arrows. This applies in personal life too. This is why [[Habits are better than goals]]. Still, if you've been keeping a habit for a while and not reaching your goal, it's time to check your arrows. #published 2025-03-07